The release of Aung San Suu Kyi
< "The Kobe" May, 20th >
translated by E.T.O.

- the ethnic nationalities issue' in Burma was never referred -

Burma's (Myanmar) opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi was freed on May 6th after a year and seven months of house arrest by the military government, State Peace and Development Council (SPDC).

Burma is on the verge of economic collapse over recent years due to sanctions imposed by western countries. When I visited to Rangoon last August, one US dollar was exchanged for 600 kyat in black market, which has been devalued to 1, 000 kyat by the end of April. (Official parity rate is US dollar = 6.6 kyat)

Price of daily products such as foods and fuels have risen oppressing people's living ever than before. Recent release of the opposition leader may have been chosen as a desperate measure to improve its economy under the pretext of seventh intermediation taken by United Nation special envoy Razali Ismail.

Japanese government had already made a cabinet decision to resume ODA (Official Development Assistance) by the end of April which I was previously informed therefore the 'release' was not a great surprise for me.

National League for Democracy (NLD), which Suu Kyi plays role as a Secretary-General, will enter into a closed door dialogue with the SPDC over democratization while negotiating on release of more than 1,500 political prisoners.

It is not unusual that the NLD will promote a shift to democratic country emphasized by the result of winning more than 80 percent majority in 1990 general elections, although the SPDC is not likely to let go of the power.
There is a speculation that general elections is planned to forge an interim administration so that the NLD will give up the result of 1990 elections. But how could that be explained? There might be an internal split between pro-democratic advocates who have fled to the Thai border and third countries desperate to recognize the past result.

Perhaps the NLD will start out with non-political matters such as educational and medical issues to investigate the true intention of the junta.

Burma's drug trafficking is another serious problem which allegedly involved by the government military officials. The country has become the world's largest opium producer than Afghanistan two years ago. In addition, HIV epidemic is showing a wide spread without being known.

However, I am concerned of different side from reporting Burma for the past decade. The greatest challenge Burma encounters is 'ethnic nationalities problem.'

The SPDC has never reduced military power from a conviction that they will not let Myanmar become the next Yugoslavia. In fact, ethnic nationalities have been protesting through armed conflicts in peripheral districts for over half a century.

Nevertheless, 'ethnic nationalities issue' in Burma was never referred on Suu Kyi's recent release.

If spokesperson of ethnic nationalities existing more than 40 groups, will not take part in upcoming talk between the NLD and the SPDC, a dispute may revive among Burmese majority and ethnic minorities or between the ethnic minorities as of the independence period in 1948.

The SPDC might shift the responsibility to solve the most complicated ethnic issue to NLD when the junta begins to loose its political influence. Thus, they will try to retain their concessions after the problem is solved or label the NLD as incapable of controlling the country if result in failure.

A mere shell of democratic nation might lead to legal suppression against ethnic nationalities resided in peripheral districts. There remain abundant natural resources such as gas, mineral and barely existing teakwood that multinational enterprises are sure to explore inland.

Ethnic nationalities who have lived on the frontier by forming their own community, might be forced to assimilate in the global economy and find themselves loosing a place to live from having bereaved of the natural resources.

In the meantime, the NLD will face the most critical agenda, to restore a democratic government. In addition, they will return to the political scene while focusing on the ethnic nationalities who have been ignored for a long time.

The international society must keep our eyes on the junta and provide a full support to recognize the establishment of democratic government.
Mobilizing Burmese government troops can never be seen at tourist attractions.
( Eastern Burma / August, 2001 )